Coup in Rwanda? You are kidding

NewVision
Asuman Bisiika

Among the many false accusations levelled against Patrick Karegeya was that of treason. In this article, a known political analyst in Rwanda, Asuman Bisika, convinces us this is false.

Unconfirmed reports that spilled to the press last week said there was an attempted coup in Rwanda. These reports, lacking objective intelligence analysis, were occasioned by the arrest and consequent detention of Col. Patrick Karegeya and the fleeing of three junior officers and a non-commissioned officer.

Col. Patrick Karegeya, hitherto a close confidant of President Paul Kagame, was spokesman of Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF). What is surprising to Kigali watchers though is the two junior officers confessed they were involved in an unsuccessful coup in Rwanda,. Which is suspicious.

Rwanda lacks a tradition of forward-leaning civic attitude. People’s socio-political feelings are muffled, which gives analysts a field-day whenever there is public expression of disaffection. It was, therefore, not surprising that analysts were already building a scenario of a crumbling regime in Kigali.

However, anyone watching Rwanda closely would tell you Col. Karegeya does not have a support base in the army to enable him topple the government. And the two junior officers were no longer in service.

But is a military coup possible in Rwanda? No. And I am staking my credibility as an analyst on Rwanda on this. I have to repeat this for the sake of clarity: A coup in Rwanda is impossible due to foreign and local factors. I will explain.

The RDF has transformed itself to reflect a national character. This national character ties into the national spirit of submission to the state. Most of the original RPF military and political leadership has been edged from positions of influence. Save for Lt. Col. Dr. Emmanuel Ndahiro, Director General of National Security Agency, most of the people now surrounding President Kagame are people who came from Burundi or Congo and Rwandans with no refugee background. With the national spirit of submission, these people cannot afford the luxury of espousing divergent views from those of the president.

Lt. Gen. Marcel Gatsinzi, the Minister for Defence, is a former FAR (Habyarimana army) officer. In Rwanda, a serious attempt has been made to separate policy issues concerning the military and operational functions of the army.

This gives the Ministry of Defence political control over the army. And to ensure that such a structure does not become troublesome to the regime, the National Security Agency (NSA) which is under President’s Office supervises all intelligence gathering organisations including Immigration.

That Col. Patrick Karegeya planned to topple the government in a military coup with some junior officers seems impossible.

Although he was close to President Paul Kagame, Col. Karegeya stayed away from the dynamics and the operational functions of the army. The closest he might have been to the dynamics of the RDF was when he supervised the rebels Congolese RCD-Goma.

Another factor that would make a coup in Rwanda difficult is that most of the officers who have expressed dissatisfaction with the way things are done have either been redeployed in less-influential positions or punished into submission. My personal opinion is that even if there were expressions of disaffection, particularly among senior officers with Ugandan refugee background, it could not have reached a stage where people would plot a coup against the regime. The fear of how to execute a coup and the consequences make it impossible to take the proposition of coup rather seriously.

Such a coup would have to be supported by another government in the region, and it so happens there is no such government with the moral strength to sell a military coup in Rwanda to the international community. Besides, the international sympathy the regime (and President Kagame in particular) enjoys because of the genocide, scares many from engaging in political undertakings involving violence.

That is why the rebel FDLR was convinced by the international community to lay down their weapons and talk peace with the regime. Even if there were a justification for a political change, the fear of violence in Rwanda is so pervading that it stops people (even the international community) in their tracks.

Perhaps the most mitigating factor against a coup in Rwanda is the conspicuous trend of international unanimity on zero tolerance of military coups. The international community may stand a stolen election, but it seems they are firm against military coups. A concerted African effort to resist a military ‘arrangement’ for Faure Eyadema to succeed his late father in Togo is a pointer to coup plotters.

My personal estimation is that a successful coup in Kigali would not stand for more than one month. I remember Col. Patrick Karegeya (then Director of External Security) and I analysing scenarios to mitigate for a military coup in Kigali.

Reviewing a multitude of possible scenarios (I think we were later joined by Maj. Dr Richard Masozera, former director of Immigration), we concluded that a coup in Rwanda would be a tall order even with political justification.

We agreed that the excesses and consequences of genocide brutalised the population into high level submission. That was early 2002 and my estimation is the situation has not changed a lot.

Which explains why Faustin Twagiramungu, who used to give the late President Habyarimana a hard time, paled against President Kagame in the 2003 presidential elections.

Besides, it is increasingly becoming difficult for the military to successfully topple governments in Africa. Well, a coup can succeed, but it would be a Herculean task to explain it, leave alone sustain it particularly in a country like Rwanda, which enjoys a lot of international sympathy.

The writer was editor of The Rwanda Herald, 1999 - 2002